#Decision Models and Risk Analysis

Decision Models and Risk Analysis course is nice blend of Statistics and Operation Research methods. Students will learn verity of optimization techniques with real world applications in various disciplines.

###Decision Models, Financial Models, Sensitivity Analysis

• Introduction to Decision Modeling
• What-If Modeling
• Goal Seeking
• Tables

###Decision Models, Financial Models, Sensitivity Analysis

• Linear and Integer Programming using Excel/WinQSB/ORMM
• Non-Linear Programming Using Excel/WinQSB/ORMM
• Sensitivity Analysis Using Excel and WinQSB/ORMM
• Sanario Managing in Execl

###Parametric and Non-Parametric Inference Data Sets

• One Group comparision
• Two Group comparision
• More than two group comparision

###Simulation

• Use of Tables
• Use of Distributions

###Queuing Theory

Queuing Theory (Modeling Waiting Lines) Modeling Inventory Decisions Modeling Waiting Lines

###Time Series Analysis

• Nature of Time Series data
• Components of Time Series
• Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Methods
• The ARIMA(p,d,q) Models for Forecasting
• Diagnostics of ARIMA(p,d,q) Models

Excel Files Used in Class Room:

• Ch 8 Unfinesed, Ch 8 Finished

Datasets:

• Comparing Groups

Assignments:

• Assignment 1, A2

Solution:

• S1, S2

###Recommended Books:

• Hammond, Keeney, Raiffa, Smart Choices: A Practical Guide To Making Better Life Decisions
• Middleton, Decision Analysis Using Microsoft Excel, April 2007
• Taha, H.A. Operations Research, An Introduction, Macmillan Publishig Company, New York, 6th Edition.
• Chernof, and Moses, L. E., Elementary Decision Theory, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.